Strange Bedfellows

Not that YOU asked, but . . .

Several students have asked me about the impending election (’tis the season) and I find myself reminding them that, despite my propensity to wear lots of rings and anything they may have heard about me, I do not have a crystal ball with which I can prognosticate the election results. (Not to mention that politics are not my area.)

Not letting something as trivial as my refusal deter them, many have switched tactics:

What effect will former V.P. Joe Biden’s election have on the economy?

Will the economy benefit from a second term for President Trump?

What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?

O.K. nobody ever asks that last one.

In the the interest of having ONE cohesive answer that I can refer everyone to:

The U.S. macroeconomy does not care about the President.

There. I said it.

A Picture is worth . . . Somethin’

As you can see (because I typed it out for you) since 1947, the market value of all final goods and services produced in the U.S. in a given year (adjusted for inflation) has grown during every administration regardless of whether the President was a Democrat or a Republican. Also, with the exception of the case of President Donald J. Trump, the U.S. economy has been in a better place at the end of the President’s first term than when he took office. If you do not believe this, click on the visualization and check. Go on. I’ll be here when you get back.

Still don’t believe it?

The Art of Being Well

So, you take issue with the use of the overall size of the macroeconomy (real GDP) as a measure of economic performance? You would like to know about how the experience of the average human, living in the U.S.? While it is not the most popular measure of economic well-being, per-capita Gross Domestic Product (real GDP divided by population) is considered an O.K. proxy of overall economic well-being, by some.

Same story. Same result.

Overall U.S. economic well-being has increased during every administration, since 1947.

So, with the exception of 2020, a year in which the economy all but shutdown for several months, the economy has been unaffected by politics.