Stimulating Topic
Previously on “2020”
Just a quick word this week about something, about which, for a very understandable reason, people have been asking me. My hesitation to write, at length, about the current global pandemic, is not due to a lack of thoughts or opinions, on the subject. Since March 12th, I have commented very publicly, many times, about the economic impact of COVID-19, as well as the various relief efforts that the U.S. government has dangled, like a giant carrot, in front of a confused and misinformed nation.
While the world was transitioning to life with The Tiger King, House Party, and Drizly, rather abruptly, and rightly so, the international academic system came to a screeching halt in March, transitioning to a world of Zoom, WebEx, and Blackboard Collaborate.
One of the benefits of the educational system, when it is working, is that it affords all who attend equal access to the resources necessary for success. All students, regardless of age, race, ethnicity, gender, gender identity, sexual preference, etc., have the same access to the teacher; the same access to the lectures; the same access to whatever technology that is in the school. Many took this system for granted. Many may have failed to recognize the value of the educational system. Sometime in the second week of March, that changed.
At a moment’s notice, all of the equality of educational opportunity afforded students by the structure of the U.S. educational system vanished, like Don Lewis. Suddenly, students, parents, teachers, and administrators scrambled to cobble together a temporary system to get students (at every level) through the Spring term, remotely, until normality could be restored.1 The issue was that all of the cobbling was dependant on only two things:
- U.S. cities, towns, and villages having already heavily invested in a major infrastructure project called WiFi.
- Everyone in the country having access to it.
Only two things.
In the absence of both of these things, Spring Education 2020 was doomed.
In order for students to access their classes (at EVERY educational level) they need access to the class. Now, socio-economic considerations that are not significant in the classroom, become very significant in the home. One household with weak WiFi signal being shared between remote students and possibly work-from-home parents is the opposite of equality of educational opportunity. Students are no longer treated similarly, unhampered by artificial barriers to borrow a definition from Wikipedia.2 Students, parents, teachers, and administrators did what they did, and made it out of Spring, they best they could.
The Summer months gave us a moment to assess what did not work, and what worked a bit better. Summer 2020 was a period consumed by discussions of inequality at every level of society. This dialogue that needs to continue, at its heart, many have described as giving voice to those who have long gone ignored. Once students were sent home, it silenced many student voices. Recognizing this frightening trend, some students refused to go unheard.
Schools attempted to, either for damage control or fact-collecting purposes, measure student satisfaction through the use of surveys. To whatever extent as it could work, the needs of the students must be heard.
As can be seen above, at the University level, many students experienced “difficulties with online learning because their home environments were chaotic and/or their technology spotty.” As far as their suggestions:
Uh-Oh.
There is No War in Ba Sing Se
When asked what practices students felt were unhelpful, more than one University student had the following complaint:
What?
Faculty who “adjusted course content to include the pandemic,” because “students are already living through the pandemic and don’t want to talk about it in class.”
I teach Economics. I teach Quantitative Analysis. I teach International Economic Policy. I teach History of Economic Thought. How am I expected to do any of those things, when this is happening?
Between February 19th and March 23rd, Equity markets in the U.S., Asia, and Europe came crashing-down.
How was anyone supposed to ignore that?
It is nice to know the government CARES
On March 27th, Congress passed the Coronovirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which cost approximately $2 trillion dollars. This stimulus package will go down in history for, at least, two reasons:
- $1,200 was to be sent to all eligible taxpayers. (with some couples filling jointly receiving $2400)
- The President wanted his name on all the checks.
A common concern about the CARES Act is the total lack of aid to college students and parents with students in college, and we know that this was on people’s minds. On May 12th the House passed the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act, proposing to commit $3.4 trillion to relief, a portion of which would be earmarked for
FORGIVING STUDENT LOAN DEBT AND PROTECTING STUDENT BORROWERS
As of today, the HEROES Act has not yet been approved by the Senate, so there has been quite a bit of speculation of if there will be a second round of stimulus and if this round will offer some relief for education. As early as June and as recent as this past Monday (September 23rd) the question of a second round of checks was brought to me. My answer has not changed.
In June, I spoke with Geoff Williams with U.S. News and World Report and explained:
“Universities are going to make less money in the fall, and we kind of know it, but we aren’t talking about it.”
I have long felt that when the reality of decreased revenue hit universities, they would be forced to either cut costs in their services, raise tuition or both. We have seen that many universities have struggled with these choices; however I do not know how students and parents will deal with the upset of being called upon to pay even higher tuition – especially if learning is remote, which many people may never feel matches the experience of being inside a classroom.
It is for this reason that, since the CARES Act passed, I feel that Washington should spend some of the stimulus to subsidize universities and possibly offset the problems that will likely occur if college students continue to attend college .
“Provisions need to be made for the students who don’t have the same technological access as other students.”
This is, pretty much, the only hope for acquiring that equality of educational opportunity that students lost in March.
“Not all students have access to webcams and microphones. Universities or the government have to give the kids the resources they would have if they were on campus . . . The students were equal when they were on the same campus, getting the same information in the classroom. But if you’re at home, you may not be having the same education experience.”
Ultimately, whether or not the HEROES Act (or any additional stimulus) passes in 2020 (or more specifically before the election), the decision will be politically- not economically-driven. Not being a political scientist, I cannot speak to the likelihood of it happening, all I speak to is the potential benefit should it pass.
We face two potential questions:
- Did the CARES Act work?
- What changes should a newer stimulus package have to improve upon the previous?
Is the System Working?
To the first question, I feel it is too soon to tell in what way the CARES Act has/is affecting the U.S. economy. To understand the concern over the effectiveness of stimulus, one must consider the various lags that economic policies face.
From my book:3 (with commentary, in bold)
- Information lag Data on the current state of the economy is not reported daily. In order to record recessive GDP, the economy must first be in a recession. It takes months for the the recession to be recorded, a period during which, the economy is already suffering. (There was no way to know the extent that COVID-19 was affecting the economy, at first.)
- Recognition lag After the data has been recorded, it must be interpreted by an analyst. Recognizing the recession is dependent on the analysts skill.
- Legislation lag After the analyst has reported the existence of the recession, for which the economy requires stimulus, a considerable period of time must be spent as policy-makers discuss specifically what policy should be utilized. (How many months was Congress arguing over the specifics of what should be included in the CARES Act? How many long has it been, and HEROES still has not passed the Senate?)
- Implementation lag Once a policy has been agreed to, time is required for the policy to be put into effect. (How long did it take for the CARES Act checks to go out?)
- Effectiveness lag After the policy has been implemented, time is required for the policy to effect change in the economy. This can range anywhere from months to years. (The CARES Act passed on March 27th, six months ago. Many checks did not start going-out until June or July, three months ago. The stimulus money has not, yet, had time to adequately work its stimulus magic.)
Regardless of whether the first round of checks have worked, we must ask if the stimulus was/is aimed at enough people. As I said this week, when speaking with Norm Elrod with CBS News New York:
“. . . if we believe that stimulus works and we want it to be as widespread as possible, we don’t want to limit it to just a small group of people. We want it to go to as many people as possible.”
Whether this means aiding those who are still waiting to return to work, or help those in need of subsidized education:
“If consumption can be aided by putting money in hand, then you put money in hand . . . It is the whole purpose of a social safety net, like social security, like unemployment, like Medicaid. That there is a need.”
Time will tell to what extent stimulus helps bolster the U.S. economy, as we try and navigate our way to the new year.
"Just as soon as we are sure what is normal anyway." Douglas Adams↩︎
Macroeconomics: Big Things Have Small Beginnings (2020: Cognella Publishing) Available whereever finer books are sold.↩︎
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